At this point in time, I have a bit less than $130 million in AUM (assets under management). Only about 5% to 10% of that money is invested in the market and the rest (for the moment) is sitting in cash.
Being the inquisitive person that you obviously are, you might rightfully ask, "Why have so much in cash that doesn't pay anything?? Isn't it your job to keep that money fully invested all the time?"
The short answer is, there is not a short answer...
Right now... right now as I write these words... the market is barely positive for the week. The technical analysis of the market indicates that we are at a well-defined inflection point where the market could break to the upside or to the downside (the odds favor a move lower).
Below is my go-to chart on "the market". Even a novice chartist can see the roll-over pattern beginning on the upper right of the chart. This, by itself, is no serious indication of a bear market pattern developing, but it is a potential early warning. We have several other charts that go into more specificity with regard to support and resistance levels.
But, when the market is signaling that it is about to pick a new trend... up or down... but not signaling which way, the better course of action is to go to the sidelines.
Granted, I have several great stocks that I want to put my clients into if we have a bull market in front of us, but I would rather buy them at cheaper prices if given that opportunity.
And, lets not forget my dual mandate:
Grow client capital when risk is lower, and
Protect client capital when risk is higher.
On a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 is the highest level of risk and 1 is the lowest level of risk; the market is at about an 8... that's far too high a risk factor to be buying a lot of assets in this market.
So, which is better: Simply assume the market is going to boom higher? Or, simply assume the market is going to crash lower? I 'could' guess at one side or the other, but my clients did not hire me to guess with their money. So, I don't.
Right now, it is better to sit mostly in cash than betting (guessing) wrong and losing several percentage points.
The good news is this... we should be seeing the market resolve this current inflection point within the next few days. Here are the two possible expectations:
The market sells off 6% to 9% and moves down to the 3,982 level on the SPX, or
Moves back above the 4,200 level and reconfirms the bull market trend.
At this point, the market is in a 'too-close-to-call' technical condition. Some of the big-name talking heads believe we are in the early stages of the next bear market. Some believe the market is just pausing before lurching higher. Of course, those opinions are nothing more than guesses.
The good news is, we do not have to guess.
If the market is in the early stages of the next bear market, we are nicely positioned to start buying inverse ETFs to take (significant) advantage of that opportunity.
If the market is just pausing before booming higher, we are nicely positioned to start buying stocks that have recently gone 'on-sale' and ride that wave higher.
If you are a client of mine, you should be delighted that we have taken almost all the risk off the table by being mostly in cash and are ready to leg into the next major trend; whichever way that trend moves.
If you are not a client of mine (well... first of all, you really 'should' be), then I hope you are erring on the side of caution and not betting the farm on a bull or bear market right now. You probably should be thinking more about what you're going to do if the market drops and then continues to fall into a bear market; or, if the market recovers and moves higher, what holdings you will want to ride into the next bull cycle.
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